Conditions on the Polish fuel market in 2015
Domestic demand for fuels is shaped by the overall economic situation in Poland and the region. In 2015, Poland’s GDP grew by 3.6%, 0.2 percentage point above the government’s forecast. According to the Central Statistics Office data, the key drivers of growth were internal consumption and exports. Other supportive factors included a favourable business climate in the manufacturing and construction industries. The unemployment rate as at the year’s end was 9.8%. The overall condition of the economy is reflected in fuel consumption data, with growth seen across all product categories during the period.
- Diesel oil: consumption of diesel oil in Poland reached 12.5 million tonnes, up 8.4% on the year before. Despite the growth – the volume of consumption in 2015 was down 800 thousand tonnes on 2011. Analysts attribute the downward trend prevailing until 2014 to the fast expanding shadow economy, which took advantage of the favourable business climate and high retail prices.
- Gasolines: for the first time in six years, the segment returned to a growth path. Demand for gasoline in 2015 grew by 4.3%, to 3.8 million tonnes, stimulated by the stronger business activity, falling unemployment, and lower prices at the pump.
- LPG: sales went up by 2%, to 2,351 thousand tonnes. The LPG market in Poland may be described as mature, with annual consumption volumes at 2.2-2.3 million tonnes in each of the last five years.
- Aviation fuel: demand increased by 3.4%. Thanks to the growing number of airline services, expansion of new airlines and steady increase in the number of passengers, the market is viewed as highly promising and is expected to grow in the coming years.
By 2012, the global demand may rise by:
- 11% for JET fuel,
- 9% for LPG,
- 9% for diesel oil,
- 5% for gasoline.
In the coming years, demand for light fuel oil is expected to decline slightly, by 1%.